Very few Russians would support an end to the war without some future conditions being met, but what outcomes would be viewed as sufficient vary widely across the population.
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Russian public support for the war
has weakened since early September
But a majority still say they support Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.The estimates in this plot differ from those previously displayed on our website because they include non-response in the denominator of the estimate. We made this change after results showed that most non-respondents are genuinly uncertain about the war rather than people who have an opinion but choose not to express it.
Opposition to the war has remained fairly steady
The decline in support seems to reflect
an increase in uncertainty
Rather than a substantial shift from “support” to “oppose.”Weakening support tracks declining perceptions
of Russian success in the war.
What words do WAR SUPPORTERS associate
with the “special military operation”?
Terms related to state propaganda narratives come up frequently.
In a word association test, we asked respondents to list the first three words that came to their mind when they read the word "спецоперация." This figure shows the words that war supporters gave with the size of the word scaled by its frequency.
What words do WAR OPPONENTS associate
with the “special military operation”?
A common theme is suffering and destruction.
Can we trust public opinion data in Russia?
Our evidence so far suggests that we can. We use multiple methods including list experiments, questions about perceived political sensitivity, and others to test whether Russian respondents are answering questions about the war honestly rather than responding to political or social pressures, and we have not been able to find evidence that our respondents are not telling the truth. You can read more about these tests here.
The Russia Watcher Survey By Numbers
Respondents
Questions
Days
Additional Insights
Russians are increasingly seeing the counteroffensive as a significant threat, but are divided on how to respond.
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Our Research Findings
Findings that we publish as we discover them
Since Vladimir Putin declared "partial mobilization" on September 21, we've been asking respondents whether they support the policy. A majority of our...
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Since we began collecting data on May 19, support within the Russian population for the "special military operation" (SMO) in Ukraine has been high--a...
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