Casualty Perceptions in Russia (May 13, 2024)
How many soldiers do Russians think have died in the war in Ukraine? We have asked this question regularly since September 2022. Casualty perceptions have clearly increased over time.
Whereas in the fall of 2022 an average of just over 17\% of respondents thought that more than fifty thousand Russian soldiers had died, by spring 2024 the share went up to almost 57\% (excluding people who said that they didn’t know or preferred not to answer).
Uncertainty, however, remains very high and has not decreased over time: less than 25\% of people said they don't know or prefer not to answer the question.
This is likely due to the Ministry of Defense's policy of not providing information on war deaths. The last time the MoD gave any numbers was over a year ago, and these were highly underestimated.
The Kremlin’s refusal to release information about its losses suggests that the Putin regime fears that news of casualties will make Russian citizens more likely to oppose the war.
Political science research (mostly from the USA and other western democracies) has found that casualties tend to undermine support for war. Is this the case in Russia as well? This is an open question - and one that our research team is studying.
See the original Tweet here.
