Russia Watcher

Daily insights on Russian public opinion

Russian public support for the war

ebbs and flows

But a majority still say they support Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.

The estimates in this plot differ from those previously displayed on our website because they include non-response in the denominator of the estimate. We made this change after results showed that most non-respondents are genuinly uncertain about the war rather than people who have an opinion but choose not to express it.

Opposition to the war has remained fairly steady

Most changes in support and opposition are

driven by changes in uncertainty

Rather than a substantial shift from “support” to “oppose” or vice versa.

Most Russians continue to see the war as successful

What words do WAR SUPPORTERS associate

with the “special military operation”?

Terms related to state propaganda narratives come up frequently.

In a word association test, we asked respondents to list the first three words that came to their mind when they read the word "спецоперация." This figure shows the words that war supporters gave with the size of the word scaled by its frequency.

What words do WAR OPPONENTS associate

with the “special military operation”?

A common theme is suffering and destruction.

Can we trust public opinion data in Russia?

Our evidence so far suggests that we can. We use multiple methods including list experiments, questions about perceived political sensitivity, and others to test whether Russian respondents are answering questions about the war honestly rather than responding to political or social pressures, and we have not been able to find evidence that our respondents are not telling the truth. You can read more about these tests here.

The Russia Watcher Survey By Numbers


Our Research Findings

Findings that we publish as we discover them
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